刘肖凡,吴晔,许小可

• 1:香港城市大学媒体与传播学系
• 2:香港城市大学互联网挖掘实验室
• 3:北京师范大学计算传播学研究中心
• 4:北京师范大学新闻传播学院

摘要(Abstract)：

本文从流行病传播动力学的角度探讨媒体在应对突发公共卫生事件中的干预作用。我们首先分析传染病模型中的基本要素,并指出干预传染病传播速率和范围的关键环节,包括降低疾病传染率、减少易感人群基数和增加收治率等。然后,我们结合2020年新型冠状病毒流行事件中的一些实际案例来分析和评价媒体在这些环节中起到的正面和负面的干预效果。研究发现,从传染病学的角度审视媒体的干预行为,有助于深入地评价干预效果和理解产生效果的原因。本文认为,在应对以突发公共卫生事件为代表的社会危机时,媒体需要在科学的指导下开展工作:首先理解危机的发展过程和可能的干预环节,然后明确自身在各环节中的定位和潜在作用,才能精准地发挥公共影响力,产生正面的干预效果。

关键词(KeyWords)： 媒体效果;传染病模型;突发公共卫生事件;新型冠状病毒

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家社科基金重大项目“大数据时代计算传播学的理论、方法与应用研究”(项目号:19ZDA324);; 国家自然科学基金(61773091);; 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(310422107);; 辽宁省高等学校创新人才支持计划(LR2016070)资助

作者(Author): 刘肖凡,吴晔,许小可

DOI: 10.16602/j.gmj.20200011

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